So here’s the deal. Yitzchak and I had a couple of long talks and didn’t quite like the realizations and results.
1. On September 17, the Congress will decide if they wish to accept or reject the Iran deal. If they accept it, Israel will take out Iran. If they reject it, Obama will try to veto the rejection, sanctions may or many not be lifted, and the time that Iran has to do whatever it wants will be lengthened. Israel, and the West, may or may not decide to take Iran out.
2. If Israel sees that Iran is closer than we thought to getting nuclear weapons, Israel will simply get rid of those weapons. As it stands now, it looks like Iran is trying to convince both America and Israel that the deal meant nothing, and that the only solution is military.
2a. If Israel has nukes, and decides to use those nukes, Israel will be condemned and will to fight a war to defend itself. However, Iran will no longer be able to retaliate.
2b. If Israel does not have nukes, or does have nukes but decides not to use them, Israel will face retaliation not only from Iran, but from other nations – and terror groups – as well.
3. At some point, the Sunni-Shiite war may or may not spill over into Israel. Hezbollah may or may not decide to rain rockets on us, either as part of that war or as a last-ditch attempt to “take Israel with it when it goes.”
4. If a major regional war does start (i.e., not simply Israel versus proxy terror groups), it will be impossible, or nearly impossible, to leave after said war breaks out.
5. The intifada is seriously getting out of control. Dealing with Iran can only make it worse.
5a. On the other hand, the Israeli public is waking up, and our patience is getting shorter – which means that there is reasonable hope that the intifada will be squashed fairly soon.
6. We may just be pessimists imagining things, but Dad doesn’t think so. And I trust Dad. He was right last time, about the Iran deal. And I think he’s right this time, about the coming war. Unfortunately.
So now we have two big questions, and their names are Shlomo and Tova, the two kids with whom we are blessed, and the two kids to whom we have a responsibility, as their parents. Shlomo still hasn’t quite gotten over Tzuk Eitan (big understatement). Do we stay, because
– it’s where we belong,
– it’s familiar,
– no one in the family needs the upheaval of moving continents at this point,
– the community here is something really special,
– moving costs an enormous amount of money
– it’s our home – and pray that Dad is wrong, or if he is right, that we still live in relative peace and normalcy, with nothing except a few trips to the bomb shelter to show for it?
Or do we leave, because
– we don’t know what will be, and when we do know, it may be too late,
– Shlomo doesn’t need any more traumas,
– we have a decent offer to work as shluchim (Chabad emissaries),
– we are, well, parents, and part of being parents is making sure that your kids are safe?
Obviously, there are lots of little things that make it much easier to stay than to go, and make Israel a much better place to live than anywhere else (besides for the fact that we never really imagined ourselves as shluchim, for several reasons). Plus, maybe we are just pessimists, and none of this stuff is actually going to happen.
Hm. What would you do, if you were in our place?