9 thoughts on “Flight 370 – Some Possibilities

  1. LD, I would like to repost this at some other sites and give you credit for being the first one to fill in more of the red circle on the satellite map, if that’s ok with you. Are you, in fact, the one who drew this up (extended the red lines)? Or was it someone else? Good job, BTW!


      • Excellent! Thanks!

        Just so you know, I’ve been reading that the only motivation that the Malaysian authorities had for attenuating the red arcs on the diagram was that they believed the fuel was limited to those distances. But that is based on the official statement of the airline CEO. His statement, like any official Malaysian statement, is likely to be heavily biased in favor of minimizing the impact of losing this jet and not angering the Chinese any more than they have to. It’s almost certainly dishonest, anyway, because he denied that they had any margin beyond the Beijing destination, and that’s crazy. On a flight of that length, there would always be a 20% margin or so, allowing additional loitering and such.

        So, I’m just saying that you were thoroughly justified in extending those red arcs. As a working aerospace engineer with degrees in both aircraft and spacecraft engineering, I can confirm that the 40 degree circle that extends into Africa is just as good as the one they showed over SE Asia. The final signal could have come from anywhere on that map, as long as the plane was capable of getting there in 7.5 hours. I believe the destinations in the Middle East, at least, were within range. I also think there’s a lot of uncertainty in that 40 degree circle. I’m pretty sure it’s approximate, so the final destination might really be between 30 and 50 degrees, and that could open up more of the Middle East as well as Libya, etc.


      • So Malaysia has joined the Arab nations in lying; I guess that makes sense. I was also wondering if the 40 was exact or if 30 or 50 could also be possibilities. The real question is, why are they wasting so much valuable time searching the Indian Ocean if they know it’s in vain? Or is there another, secret search that we don’t know about? It’s possible, but in my opinion, not likely.

        An aerospace engineer involved in both aircraft and spacecraft engineering? You should join the search teams! They sure could use more people with those areas of expertise. And here Yitzchak and I are guessing away like amateurs. Boy, I feel dumb.

        Also, if they had 7.5 hours of fuel how come no one said anything before? That Malaysia didn’t is obvious – but what about China?


      • You’re NOT just guessing away like amateurs. You’re asking intelligent questions and theorizing based on the actual facts. It’s just unfortunate that more people (and news organizations) aren’t curious enough to do the same.

        I wouldn’t exactly accuse the MAL exec of “lying,” per se. He simply made the safest and most non-incriminating statement he could without mentioning anything about margins. He hoped nobody would ask any questions, and they didn’t. He should have probably said: “The plane was only fueled with enough to make the 6 hour flight to Beijing … PLUS the usual reserve to extend flight time to about 7.5 hours to account for contingencies.” He simply didn’t elaborate.

        I’m just an engineer. They have plenty of good people working on this mystery in all the countries involved. That’s why I suspect many of them really know what probably happened, but for whatever reason, they aren’t talking about it. Maybe to keep from provoking the Iranians or the Chinese (allies). Maybe to avoid giving families false hope that their relatives may still be alive. I tend to think that they are. But what will be done with them? Maybe quietly repatriated somehow? Who knows?


      • (We turned the computer off on Friday for Shabbat, and Saturday night it refused to turn back on. It’s been refusing since – so I’m reduced to using the library’s computers. Sorry for the unanswered comments and delays.)

        You’re right – they want to be really careful that they don’t say anything non-PC. I also tend to believe that the prisoners are still alive – or were, at least, until they were killed outright. But I guess we won’t know . . .

        I think the non-elaboration is a sin in and of itself in this case, though. Who knows what it can cause? I wish I could say that they were looking for information without telling us.


  2. Pingback: Malaysia – Again | Little Duckies

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